The rematch of Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski – October’s UFC Main Event
This October 21, 2023 fight card will take place at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Already this fight is expected to be a fight of the year candidate, and if you saw the first fight – you’ll know it’s going to be electric.
Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski 2 looks to be a sufficiently interesting fight, given the history, the skillsets on display and the crowd/location – forget that these guys have already banged it out before, and while you can probably say you know why the result was what it was, this is a fight that has renewed vigor from both fghters. It’s going to be a BIG NIGHT – even if the UFC 294 slate takes place over the daytime hours in the Western Hemisphere.
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As for betting – this one is probably a LOT closer than it seems and maye the books even have it wrong on the tilt – but Saturday’s matchup is going to be Fantastic! See what Rick and Andy have to say about how they are betting this card.
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Below you can read the transcript of this podcast about the Main Event Card for UFC 294:
Andy: And last, but certainly not least, we have a rematch of what was already teed up to be Fight of the Year, which happened in February, but potentially could be one upped by the rematch. Islam Makhachev at minus 260 versus Alexander Volkanovski at plus 210. These lines have teetered back and forth since the fight was announced.
And if you hadn’t heard, Volkanovski is also stepping in on short notice. As Charles Oliveira, I think, went full tilt at one of his practices and cut his eyebrow open or something like that? Or, I’ve heard mixed reports. Dana White said it was his eye, it was his eyebrow. Dumb to do right before you leave for Abu Dhabi, but hey.
The champion has a name and it’s Charles Olivera. I can’t doubt the man. So, maybe, maybe it’s a mad strategy after all. Makhachev, 24 1, 13 1 in the UFC. He’s got 4 knockouts, 11 subs, 9 decisions in his professional career. You know what you’re getting with Makhachev. You are getting that insane cardio. He’s going to strike you with surprising power.
We’ve seen him knock down. Charles Olivera in his first title fight. He’s knocked down some other guys in surprising fashion too. But you know him damn well for his takedowns. You know him going to destroy you when he’s going for the takedowns. And not necessarily go for the submission, which is what Volkanovski camp has been saying.
They said that they focused a lot on submission defense last camp and now they’re focusing on takedown defense this camp, which I found to be interesting. Like, they’re saying that Islam’s scared to go for the sub. It’s clear he was trying to go for the sub, but Volkanovski was so good at working the hands, working the body, making sure that he was striking.
Islam and not giving him clean looks to sub him. That I guess they’re saying, no, we’re just going to work on him not even getting him to the ground this time. Volkanovski arguably won that fight. There are a lot of people who thought that Volkanovski won that fight last time. There are people that have gone back, like myself.
I see why Islam was given the win last time, even though I am a massive Volkanovski fan. Volkanovski is by far one of the most versatile fighters that Islam is ever going to see. And Islam’s going to be around for a long time in this division, and maybe even move up to welterweight someday. I, I think that there is a path for Volk here, and I think that Volk is still good value, plus money.
Because I think we’re going to see, once again, a tight fight. But, what I love the most, Rick, and then, I’ll give my first play. My first play is Volkanovski for a unit, at plus 210. Because I think, we saw it in such a close decision, you should not be getting him at plus 210, no matter what. The No matter what those tight odds, or excuse me, what the outcome was the last time we were in such a tight fight.
The last I saw the total was at over under three and a half, with the under juiced to plus 160. I’m gonna take the under, because my theory here is this. I think Volkanovski either rushes into it and tries to do what he wants to. And because he, he feels like he doesn’t have as big of a stake in this one.
We’re less dwelling on what’s going to happen. And more so gets to implement some of the things that he’s been working on. For the last 8 months away from this. Where he’s been dwelling on his fight for 8 months. He said he’s been craving getting back to fighting. Islam. So he knows what he wants to do, I think he’s going to rush into it and try to go for a finish here, and there is a method for him to do that.
I also think that if he does try to implement what he wants to earlier on, that it opens up a lot of doors for Islam to potentially take advantage of him, close him out, and that lack of training. For Volkanovski, I know he’s always fight ready, right? That lack of training couldn’t take advantage of him or where Makhachev gets the finish.
I love the under three and a half here for plus money. That’s insane to me. So I’ll go with that as well as Volkanovski, both for a full unit at both plus money. I took up a lot of the time there, so we can run over the bell a bit. What do you have here, Rick?
Rick: Yeah, I think, I mean, hey, we go into the championship rounds here the last fight, but maybe, maybe make that a thing.
I don’t know. First iteration, we’ll continue to take y’all’s feedback and continue to make changes and improve. But I, I’m with you. I think that there’s a good avenue for this fight not to go the distance. I mean, we saw it almost not go the distance the last time and you’ll clearly have a lot more urgency from Volkanovski to, to try and end this fight early because the longer it goes, you have to imagine it favors Islam.
But with that said, I mean, Volkanovski doesn’t strike me as a guy who in, when he’s not in fight ready or when he’s not in camp, he’s, he’s not training. I mean, he seems like a guy who is obsessed with trying to with, with trying to, to get the title and then be the double champ. But I think that it comes down to, to whether or not Islam can, can really get this fight to the ground.
Just like last fight. If he can, I mean, Volk still did a pretty surprisingly good job of getting, scooting his butt up to the fence and getting back up. But I mean, that, that’s where Islam sees his sees all of his success. I wouldn’t even say most he’s got a couple of fights on the feet, but Volkanovski though, I mean, to counter almost my point earlier, I mean, his average fight is 17 minutes.
So he’s used to long fights. He’s used to, there’s a bell, he’s, he’s used to having to get to this to go this hard for this long and being able to pace himself. And I think that with a guy that doesn’t have as much volume on the feet in Islam, he’ll be fine cardio wise. It’ll be interesting to see whether or not he can crack Islam again.
He’s such a technical fighter. It’s such a student of the game that I think that he’s gonna be able to pick up on more tells now that He was able to be in the octagon and share that octagon for 25 minutes with Islam. I think that he could potentially Get Islam out of there. I don’t want to I don’t want to I don’t want to be too overzealous here, but I think that we could really see a change of guard here and Islam come back down to earth a little bit to where we don’t put him in that same boat as Khabib.
Andy: Yeah, there were angles where you could already say that he’s not in the same boat as Khabib. I mean, they looked night and day like where Volke beat the piss [00:06:00] out of his face and like Islam looked like he should’ve lost the fight. I mean, he could barely stand after the fight and like the Volk vol could’ve got another five.
Just looking at his cardio. I know, I mean Makhachev I said it insane cardio. He’s gonna be able to go all five. He could probably go another five. Again, it’s just the visual there was not great on his part. Volkanovski was plus 310 in the first fight, and now we’re getting him at plus 210 in the next one after how close it was, like, I just don’t understand that at all.
Even though the short notice part, I agree with you. He’s always ready to go, like, and he’s been, he’s been thinking about this fight every day since it happened. I just feel like it’s such good value once again on Volk. That’s all I have on that one, really.
Rick: Yeah, my last point I think at least, that I make is that Islam really hasn’t faced all that tough of a competition on his way up.
I mean, I know he’s beaten a ton. I mean, he beat Armin Saroukian about four years ago, but that was more of a raw Armin, and that was a good fight if you go back and watch it. Saroukian
Andy: got a takedown. And yeah,
Rick: and then, I mean, but his most recent wins, I mean, obviously is the Volkanovski fight and the finish over Oliveira, but that’s really it.
I mean, Bobby Green after that, Dan Hooker, who is past it, he’s still good, but he’s Dan Hooker. And if you’re Islam, you can finish that fight. You can get to the ground. Same with Dober and, and Tiago Moises as well. So this is such a higher level of competition for Islam that I think that he could struggle in some different areas on the feet.
But also not see the success he typically sees on the ground. And I think that there’s a lot of avenues where Volk wins this fight, but we’ll see how that conditioning and that size really plays a factor here.
Andy: Yeah, and I’ve got one more that I forgot to mention. So I’m going with Volkanovski money line for a unit.
I’m going to go with the under for a unit under three and a half. And I’m also going to, and I tweeted this out earlier. So if you haven’t seen it yet, be sure to throw it into your underdog lineups, but There’s a lot of fun ways you can play UFC on Underdog, and if you decide to, be sure to use our promo code, it’s HAPPYHOUR, and you get a 100 percent match on your first deposit up to 100 bucks.
It’s a lot of fun, and it’s a lot of fun to do NFL drafts and NBA drafts and stuff too, all kinds of sports and stuff, but that’s my shameless plug there. I’ve got Volkanovski plus three takedowns versus Islam head to head. The reason why I have that… Is because Islam, he beat Volk on takedowns 4 0 last time.
If we take what Volp’s camp is saying for, like to be true, they’re working on that takedown offense, we’re likely they will try to get that takedown number down. And if they even get it down one, then you’re pushing. The other thing I will say here is that Makhachev has not gone over that number, so… Three or more takedowns since 2017.
Like, he’s either gotten three or less. So you’re at least getting a push from his history. Besides the Volk fight last time. That’s the one exception. In the last six years, that was the only time that he’s gone where he’s covered that spread. I just think with the improvements that Volk has made where he’s focused a lot on that, as well as Islam’s history where he, he does go for a lot of takedowns, but he’s usually getting one takedown and then going to work the rest of the round.
If you feel like you’re going to go with the under like I am, then I feel like it’s a safe assumption that he’s going to get that one takedown if he gets it, and then he’s going to be able to use it the rest of the round because he normally does not let people up. Even though we did see Volk weasel his way out at times.
Rick: Yeah. I think my only caveat to that is a lot of times it’s one takedown because he finishes them once they’re there. So there’s not a room for more. And I think that, I mean, I think that, I think that Volk can be able to notch his own as well. I think he did that one in the last, I think that he could potentially reverse and be able to at least get credited for a takedown, even if it isn’t like a true double leg takedown, I mean, I say true, multiple different types of takedown, but even if it isn’t your traditional double leg power takedown of Islam where it looks imposing, he could, he could get a sweep and get a takedown of Islam real quick and get it to count.
So I like the, Yeah, I think, I think my only bet right now is going to be Islam inside, or not Islam, Volk inside the distance at plus 425, I think is what it’s at. And just play that for a half unit. I think that if he wins, it’s probably going to be inside the distance. But I’ll also take him on the cards as well.
Andy: Nice. Yeah. I’m with you. That’s that everybody. We have covered all 13 fights for the UFC 294 Abu Dhabi card. Hope you enjoyed this latest and greatest edition of the prelims and Pilsner’s podcast, or excuse me, the Pilsner’s and prelims podcast. If you guys have any comments, feedback, or anything at all, please shoot it our way on Twitter.
You can email us too. You find us at happyhoursports.net. I mean, you do got, you guys know where to find us. We’re super happy to have this podcast back rolling and giving you guys the MMA content that you’ve been asking us for this year. So really hype about this pod. I hope you guys enjoyed and we will catch you guys on the next one.
See y’all later.